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In this article, we explore the key question many fans are asking ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026 group draw: What pot will the Japan national team be placed in on December 6? Based on the latest FIFA ranking trends and official draw procedures, Japan is strongly expected to be placed in Pot 2. Below is a comprehensive breakdown designed for smartphone-friendly reading.
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World Cup 2026 Group Draw Schedule
The FIFA World Cup 2026, co-hosted by Canada, Mexico, and the United States, is approaching its final preparation stage. The official group-stage draw will take place on December 5, 2025 (local time) at the John F. Kennedy Center in Washington D.C. For viewers in Japan, the event starts at 2:00 AM on December 6.
The tournament will feature 48 teams divided into 12 groups (A–L), each containing 4 teams, marking the largest World Cup format in history.
How the Pot System Works
The draw pots are determined by the FIFA World Ranking released after the November international break. Teams are allocated to four pots, each containing 12 teams.
Pot structure:
- Pot 1: Hosts (Canada, Mexico, USA) + top 9 ranked teams
- Pot 2: Teams ranked 10th–21st
- Pot 3: Teams ranked 22nd–33rd
- Pot 4: Teams ranked 34th–39th + 4 UEFA playoff winners + 2 intercontinental playoff winners
Additional rules prevent teams from the same confederation from being placed in the same group, except UEFA, which can have up to two European teams per group.
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Japan’s Current FIFA Ranking and Status
As of the October and projected November 2025 ranking updates, Japan stands around 19th in the world. Even with two wins in the November international window, reaching the top 9 (required for Pot 1) is highly unlikely. At the same time, dropping below 22nd (which would place Japan in Pot 3) appears improbable.
Therefore, Japan is overwhelmingly expected to be placed in Pot 2, marking their first-ever Pot 2 appearance since the FIFA ranking-based system started in 2018.
Expected Pot Distribution
Below is a projection of likely pot assignments based on current rankings:
Pot 1 (hosts + top 9):
Canada, Mexico, USA, plus major nations such as Spain, France, Argentina, Brazil, and England.
Pot 2 (10–21, Japan’s pot):
Japan, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Denmark, Senegal, Iran, South Korea, and others.
Pot 3 (22–33):
Teams like Ecuador, Austria, and competitive mid-tier European or South American sides.
Pot 4 (34–39 + playoffs):
Lower-ranked teams and playoff winners, including unpredictable opponents with strong upset potential.
Possible Group Scenarios for Japan
Japan’s Pot 2 position provides notable stability, yet the draw can still generate widely varied group outcomes. Below are three likely scenarios:
Scenario A – Favorable Group:
A second-tier Pot 1 team + manageable Pot 3 and Pot 4 teams ⇒ Japan could aim for 6–9 points.
Scenario B – Standard Group:
A strong Pot 1 nation + mid-level Pot 3 opponent ⇒ Advancement depends on match 1 outcomes.
Scenario C – “Group of Death”:
A world-class Pot 1 nation + powerful South American Pot 3 side + dangerous playoff team ⇒ Japan faces a tough battle.
Even as a Pot 2 team, Japan must prepare for the full spectrum of difficulty.
Key Strategies for Japan Before and After the Draw
To maximize chances at the 2026 World Cup, Japan should prioritize:
- Maintaining FIFA ranking by securing results in November fixtures
- Early opponent analysis immediately after the draw
- Travel and climate adaptation due to the tri-host format
- Deep squad rotation development given the expanded tournament format
Summary
Japan is strongly projected to land in Pot 2 for the FIFA World Cup 2026 draw on December 6. This position offers an improved starting point compared to previous tournaments, though the actual difficulty of the group will still depend heavily on the Pot 1 and Pot 3 opponents.
Fans should look forward to the draw, as the results will significantly shape Japan’s pathway toward achieving their goal: a historic first World Cup quarterfinal appearance.
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